Abstract

Covid-19 is an infectious respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was first identified in late December 2019 in China, and later spread worldwide. The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the last week of January 2020 in India. Subsequently, the number of cases drastically rose. As of May 11, 2021, in India, 2,33,40,375 positive cases have been reported, out of which 1,93,76,561 recovered and 2,53,634 death were reported as per covid19india report. To avail in designing better strategies and in making effective decisions, we can use forecasting techniques. These techniques assess the past situation, thereby enabling better prognostications about the situation to occur in the future.  Based on these time series modeling, this paper tries to study the prediction of Covid-19 in terms of total substantiated, recovered, and death cases. It also examines the daily infected, active, recovery, and death cases. The correlation coefficients and sarimax forecasting model were applied for prediction and statistical measures used for population variance equality.

Keywords: covid-19, coronavirus, time series, correlation, f-statistical test, ANOVA (Analysis of Variance), t-test, prediction, sarimax.

Introduction:

Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected millions of lives across the globe. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the disease. The virus transmits through droplets of people coughing, sneezing, or talking. (Singhal, 2020) People showing symptoms of the disease and those who are non-symptomatic carrying the viral burden infect others around. The most visible and common symptoms of the disease are fever, cough, sore throat, headache, issues with breathing, and fatigue. The condition, in most cases, shows mild symptoms and is curable at home. However, sometimes the virus attacks the person and could lead to situations like pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, organ failure, and death.

The first identified case was from Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei District in China, in December 2019 and declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in March 2020. The virus then traveled to places and countries and traced its first case in India back on January 30, 2019, in Kerala. The reported first death case was dated March 12, 2020.

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