Climate Security Risk Assessment — Mapping Climate risks and threats

Climate Security Risk Assessment — Mapping Climate risks and threats
Photo by Bill Oxford / Unsplash

This abstract is based on the report entitled, “The World Climate Security Report (WCSR)2021” by the expert committee of INTERNATIONAL MILITARY COUNCIL ON CLIMATE AND SECURITY to understand the security aspect of climate change which is causing problems to the world. It is evident that twenty years from now, security risks from climate change will go from severe to catastrophic levels. WCSR is also proving tools for policymakers to assess and address those risks.

In todays world, climate change is a buzzing word for everyone. As the world leaders, policy makers and researchers looking forward to this year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP-26) in November, year 2021 has become the inflection point for climate change action plan.

The report talks about the Climate Security Risk Perception Survey from a group of 57 climate security experts worldwide. The survey has calculated the perceptions of experts on how climate change will affect the global security in coming years.

They have also paired the survey with a matrix (first of its kind) to understand and evaluate climate security risks and its impact among different countries and regions of the world. This matrix will allow the policymakers and decision makers to work in the field of that particular affected area/s by extreme climate events.

It has been pointed that climate risks in 2021 will turn from severe-to-catastrophic levels as soon we enter 2030s. By 2041, crisis of food, water, infrastructure, etc. will rank higher that than of risk from military securities.

Below are the top most and pressing climate security phenomenon according to the survey for the years 2021, 2031 and 2041:

2021: Increased natural Disasters, Inequality, Biodiversity loss, Infectious diseases, forced displacement

2031: Increased natural disasters, precipitation change, forced displacement, disruptions in population and infectious diseases

2041: Extreme heat, Precipitation change, sea level rise, disruption in population centre and oceanic disruption

Climate Security Risk Scores of countries

The relationship between the probability of any climate event and its impact on a given country will define the climate security risk score. The score range from 0 to 100. Higher the score, worse performance it indicates relative to other countries. Climate security risk include four components namely exposure, susceptibility, coping mechanism and resilience.

The report also pointed out national climate security plot for India. The Plot shows that India has the highest relative score (100) in probability of heatwave, flooding (river and coastal). However, impact of these natural hazards is lower than the impact caused by droughts and landslides.

This means India observes lesser frequency of droughts and landslides but it has a high impact compared to other countries.

It is also revealed that world’s defence and militaries will continue to get affected by growing climate change effects and threats but it is the society and social systems who will get bound to get affected more and bad. There will more instability in coming years; Instability within Nations more than instability between Nations.

Climate Security Risk Assessment — Mapping Climate risks and threats
By Neeti Goutam, Strategic-Lead Communications, Sanrachana